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Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Market Turmoil Creates Great FX Trades

Looking at the recent history of market interventions, I am almost certain that one is due sometime this week, even as early as tomorrow, if not today. The Fed meeting today will be a really important one. There are calls for concerted global intervention and that will come to fruition.

What does that mean in the FX market? Go LONG the EURO against CHF (EUR/CHF pair) if you can take a position above 1.05 (and up to 1.065) there is an excellent probability of profiting from this trade; but do it with confidence. Put a STOP LOSS at 1.04 just in case the market violently whipsaws. My market intuitioin tells me that this time the intervention on the part of global central banks will take the EUR/CHF pair all the way back to 1.15. SNB is too eager to stem the Swiss Franc appreciation while ECB and the rest may just do enough to "temporarily" prevent the EURO crisis.

I also think that Australian Dollar (AUD) will bounce from its yesterday's low as soon as oil stops going down. Establish a LONG position in AUD/USD pair above 1.00 and this will go back to 1.08 very soon. But please do have a stop loss at 0.99 because, if it does go below that the fall further down will be precipitous!

Good Luck!

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