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Friday, April 16, 2010

Trust? Why Should Main Street Trust the Wall Street?

It is incredible how this financial crisis is throwing up the accumulated dirt in Wall Street. You can hear my own cries of anguish in some of the articles I have written in this blog. What always bothered me was the entrenched corruption and the blatant disregard for the well-being of the larger society exhibited by these very pillars of our capitalist society. Why am I writing this again? Because, just today, SEC decided to charge the mighty Goldman Sachs for committing fraud in their structuring of  Collaterlized Debt Obligations (CDOs) in at least one specific case. This, I feel, is only the beginning of what could be a long summer of more instances of clear violation of ethics by these famed institutions.

Without getting too technical about it, here is what happened (Read this for more): One of the CDO managers, working for Goldman Sachs (I believe a 31-yr old man who called himself “fabulous fab”), structured a CDO, (a derivative instrument made up of different tranches of residential mortgage-backed-securities (RMBSs) of various risk levels), wherein the securities were hand-picked by a hedge fund manager who in turn “shorted” them by purchasing credit default swaps (CDS, a form of insurance against the default of underlying bonds, in this case the securities within the CDO). So, while Goldman was selling the CDOs to all those customers who trusted their products, behind their backs Goldman was selecting rotten securities so that a hedge fund manager could short them. A serious violation of trust. There is nothing more to be said.

Now we know that John Paulson, made famous by WSJ’s Greg Zuckerman’s book “Greatest Trade Ever”, was the hedge fund manager behind this deal. Mr. Paulson made more than $2 billion in 2007 for himself and nearly $15 billion for his firm. I don’t think SEC has charged him. But, the point is, it looks like deals like this were quite commonplace in those days. Those who had the vision to short the subprime market made billions, but what is stunning here is, those who were creating these CDO products were aware of the “crumbling towers” they were building for their customers. Yet, they were driven by self-interest of the worst kind. There are more cases like this discussed in Michael Lewis’ book “The Big Short.” What is abominable is the fact that Goldman was making money on both ends—selling CDOs to the customers on one end and selling CDSs to the shorts on the other end. By the way, this is lot more complex than what I have described here. The worst part is, Goldman wasn’t even responsible for paying the CDS-holders in the event of CDO defaults, as they had investors on the other side of the CDS transactions who received the CDS premium while Goldman took a cut. Believe me, the kind of financial legerdemain evidenced here belongs to the world of Harry Houdini. Despite the complexity and conspicuous greed behind such esoteric products, there was nothing illegal about most of these actions, I think. This is a clear case of violation of trust.

That is why there is so much cynicism in the Main street when it comes to Wall Street. Of course, most of the employees of these big institutions are honest workers who work very hard to earn their above average rewards. However, it is the greed, dishonesty and incompetence of few who really hold the levers of power who are responsible for this huge crisis that has destroyed the trust of people in these institutions.

I am sure Goldman will fight these charges to safeguard its reputation. And, despite all the bad news there may be no consequences except few bad players getting thrown out of the game for good. Longer term, if this culture of greed and excesses is not changed, it is inevitable that we will be faced with another crisis. Through all this, ordinary, hard working people will suffer for no fault of theirs. Financial crisis invariably results in economic crisis and that in turn impacts people of all walks of life. It hurts them as they lose jobs, lose equity in their homes, their nest eggs deplete, children’s education suffers…the list is very big and depressing. Entire humanity pays a huge price for the action of few. What bothers me is, despite such irresponsible behavior, the central bank has allowed these big banks to have access to easy money (at the expense of tax payers), so that these banks can make billions by trading (it’s like a casino!) esoteric products and pump up the equity markets and at the end of the day have a party and giveaway huge bonuses while people in the main street continue to suffer the consequences of the actions of these big banks.

I have nothing against these institutions. I know that they play an important role in this economy. Being a finance guy myself, I have lot of respect for those who run these institutions. But somewhere, especially, in those areas where the actions of these institutions impact the larger society, things do need to change.  In order to win the trust of the main street the Wall Street has to shed greedy excesses; they have to identify the bad apples early. Instead of waiting for government regulations, they should resort to self-regulation. Greedy behavior has to be checked by creating a better incentive system. While fierce competition among these Wall Street firms require them to play the game everybody plays, any evidence of ethics violation by one firm need not be a de facto industry standard or a license for everyone to do the same. Instead, such actions should be immediately brought to the attention of regulators as opposed to waiting for the regulators to catch the thief. One honest action will lead to another and will become the reason for saving the entire system.

I guess, I am naive. Yet, is it too much to expect honest and able leadership from at least some of the leaders who head these institutions? Don’t they feel like questioning the system when there is obvious wrongs being committed that have larger implications? I certainly hope so.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Is It Time to Short the Equity Markets?

Being an active participant in the equity markets, I follow the US and global markets quite closely. What has stunned most market observers, including me, is the one-way market that keeps going higher and higher completely ignoring scary fundamentals—sovereign debt crisis in key European nations, continued softness in  US housing market, deleveraging of the US consumers, high unemployment rate and so on and on. Pundits call this slow march to new 52-wk highs as “melt-up.” I see it as Fed-enabled, liquidity-driven market where bears have simply lost the mojo to short this market. Every small dip has been seen as a “bear trap”, which is a Wall Street jargon for drawing the bears out of their hide-outs with a dip in the market only for the bulls to come in full force, reversing the trend and forcing the bears to cover their short positions.

Well, there are great many commentaries all over the web and on print media as to why the market is going higher or why it should be going down or why it will continue to go higher and so on. So, I will not dwell on it. What I wish to do is share with you some key data that depicts the tremendous run-up in the US and global markets and various individual sectors. It is simply astounding. Table below shows the ETFs that track major stock indexes of key developed and emerging nations:

World Market ETFs (as of 4/09/2010)

Symbol Price Change 52-wk
USA (SPY) 119.55 0.66% +41.53%
Canada (EWC) 28.62 0.56% +61.11%
Russia (TRF) 21.07 0.81% +75.58%
India (IFN) 32.83 0.74% +67.33%
Israel (ISL) 16.85 0.30% +95.25%
Japan (EWJ) 10.64 0.28% +27.29%
Singapore (EWS) 11.88 0.68% +75.67%
Taiwan (EWT) 13.01 0.62% +48.49%
S. Korea (EWY) 52.05 -0.04% +60.57%
S. Africa (EZA) 62.19 0.34% +64.51%
China (FXI) 44.59 1.87% +41.99%
Lat.America (ILF) 49.78 0.69% +70.00%

 

Except Japan, every other market has seen more than 40% rise in the last 52 weeks and stand at the above closing prices as shown, as of April 09, 2010 (“Change” column shows the weekly change in these ETFs). Israel ETF is up by a whopping 95%! This is incredible growth in the face of all the issues that continue to linger in the aftermath of global financial crisis.

Here is another Table that shows the individual sector performance in the US equity markets:

Sector ETFs (as of 4/09/2010):

Symbol Price Change 52-wk
Oil Service (OIH) 126.31 0.03% +54.35%
Big Pharma (PPH) 66.01 0.33% +30.21%
Internet (HHH) 62.69 0.21% +63.40%
Semis (PSI) 14.15 0.57% +40.75%
Utilities (XLU) 30.24 0.73% +19.94%
Defence (PPA) 18.84 0.77% +49.34%
Nanotech (PXN) 10.38 -0.19% +35.63%
Alt. Energy (PBW) 10.08 -0.69% +17.89%
Water (PHO) 17.81 0.34% +36.72%
Insuarance (PIC) 15.54 -0.38% +31.57%
Biotech (PBE) 19.7 0.20% +53.67%
Retail (PMR) 18.5 0.49% +31.73%
Software (PSJ) 22.39 0.86% +49.37%
Big Tech (QQQQ) 49.03 0.59% +49.60%
Construction (PKB) 13.01 1.17% +27.60%
Media (PBS) 13.56 1.19% +79.91%
Consumer Svcs (IYC) 62.74 0.64% +48.71%
Financials (IYF) 59.16 0.51% +53.94%
Health Care (IYH) 66.31 0.39% +36.82%
Industrials (IYJ) 59.53 0.69% +56.59%
Basic Mat (IYM) 66.08 0.32% +71.58%
Real Estate (IYR) 51.79 1.58% +77.63%
Transportation (IYT) 81.25 1.08% +54.99%
Telecom (IYZ) 20.48 0.59% +24.06%

(data source: www.growthstockwire.com)

Every sector has seen incredible moves to the upside. Basic Materials (IYM) is up by 71% while Real Estate (IYR) is up by 77%!

So, as my title suggests, is it time to short this market? Other than the fact that there is still a lot of cash on the sidelines and Q1 earnings are expected to be great, year-over year (YOY, easy comparisons with Q1 of 2009), we still have many of the headwinds I mentioned earlier, intact. The fact that there is the possibility of yields on the long-terms bonds (10-yr bond yields briefly touched 4.00% after a long time this week) going higher, forewarns us the threat of higher cost of capital for both the US government and the US businesses. While the US companies boast superior balance sheets with more than a trillion dollars in cash, the gains over cost-cutting has reached its peak at then end of Q4 of 2009. So, further EPS growth has to come from top line growth and that depends on growth in exports and US consumers stepping back into the game. I feel, and many markets experts concur, that rising USD may have an adverse impact on US exports, while debt-laden US consumer, faced with a weak job market, may only show up briefly (the proverbial “pent-up demand”) before withdrawing into his shell.

So, I feel the market is ripe for a 20% correction. Why such a huge correction? Once the profit-taking starts in the midst of this “great” earnings season (market has already discounted this improved YOY earnings), many of the aforementioned problems will look much larger and the herd behavior, the fear of losing the accumulated profits, will lead to a self-sustaining downward spiral. And, most of the positives that have helped sustain this rally in the form of  improving economic data (lot of it is built on the back of government stimulus and Fed easy money) will plateau. Add to that, the end to Fed’s MBS (mortgage-backed-securities) purchase coupled with rising long-term rates will stall any improvement in housing market.

So, there are strong headwinds. Therefore, I feel the market will head lower from third week of April. There will be a broad market decline with every one of the sector ETFs shown above becoming a prime candidate for shorting. Of course, this is not for the faint hearted. If the majority of the companies provide great guidance for quarters ahead and job market improves dramatically (200k – 300k jobs added every month), then the stock market will propel upward. Either way, there will be a strong inflection point in the near future. We will take a look at these ETFs at the end of the second quarter and grade this market call then.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Aftermath of Financial Crisis, Michael Lewis’ Big Short and My Struggles after MBA

The greedy who ruled the world of high finance are sitting pretty. Yes, Madoff was caught and has been rightly put behind bars for the rest of his life. How about those who wronged all of us, yet cannot be held responsible in the eyes of law?

As each day passes by, I read more stories about the shenanigans from Wall Street, who left no stone unturned, in their drive to profit from “innovative” financial products that were so complex that the only way to unwind the craziness was a certain meltdown of credit markets and therefore, the general economy. Here is one such story of how big banks looted ordinary Americans; while bank executives made millions, ordinary Americans lost jobs and contemplated suicide. I am certainly one of the casualties of this crisis and at times feel extremely angered by the irresponsibility and the greed of some, which destroyed the future of many talented people who just aspired to live a productive life. While I completely take responsibility for all my actions and decisions past, I cannot help but think that the magnitude of today’s problems are solely the creation of few powerful people who blatantly discarded all their morals and responsibility toward the society. It was a meltdown of capitalist’s dharma.

You see, I was passionate about finance. So, I left engineering in pursuit of a career in finance and economics. I read financial history, economics, business cycles, financial theories and tools, and everything connected to the capital markets with great intensity and passion. I was fascinated by the way the markets evolved over the past one hundred years. There is this amazing story of Louis Bachelier, a French mathematician whose “theory of speculation” became the foundation for the concept of stochastic processes, random movements observed in statistical variables such as stock price. I fervently studied the works of William Sharpe, Harry Markowitz, Eugene Fama, kenneth French, Ben Graham, Myron Scholes, Fisscher Black, Bob Merton and so many other brilliant academicians and strategists whose theories and models became pillars of what is being taught in the business schools and practiced by investors and traders alike in their quest to understand and conquer this dynamic organism called financial markets. I read more and more about the history of capital markets, magnificent bull runs and devastating market collapses, rogue traders and the psychology behind their irrational behavior, 1987 crash, the demise of LTCM, which boasted the Nobel laureates and the “dream team” put together by the legendary John Meriwether. Boy! did I really work hard! I did a great job in MBA where I single-mindedly pursued financial topics—advanced corporate finance, international finance, risk management & Derivatives, investment & portfolio management—and finished at the top of these finance classes. I worked hard and was certain that at some point I could be one of the most valuable contributors in managing risk in the world of finance. I promised myself that I would work very hard, shun greed and work with great ethics and morals. In essence, I wanted to truly embody the true dharma of a capitalist.

The financial crisis destroyed everything I believed in. With each passing day, while I look for a job, I am troubled by the entrenched corruption at every level of our financial system. The system is incapable of eliminating the corrupt minds and incompetent, yet powerful people who were at the very heart of this crisis. Those who can make a difference are summarily dismissed as “misfits.” The mantra is still, “ profit at any cost.” Big banks, with all that “free money” from the Feds, is trading merrily and raking in big profits. The bonuses are going ever higher. But what about the real businesses, the bloodline of our economy? Feds’ easy money doesn’t translate to easy credit for these businesses. What is the strategy here? Those who screwed up the system and brought the entire global economy to its knees should be revived so that we get our confidence back? When these bankers and their brilliant, Ivy-educated traders make millions, we, the ordinary citizens should feel everything is back to normal and go about our lives? It’s an illusion. What is wrong with these central bankers? While I agree that in free market society those who have the ability need to be rewarded, I am disgusted by the fact that these traders in these big banks, with every advantage to turn the markets in their favor by the sheer weight of their big presence, are called “brilliant” and deserving. I think a high school kid with zero interest capital and the might of Goldman Sachs behind him can make millions! I have no doubt.

Incompetence and greed are a lethal combination. I would recommend everyone to read the brilliant book by the talented Michael Lewis. The book is "Big Short.” It’s the story of few courageous and brilliant skeptic investors/traders who made big money by betting against the US housing market and all those esoteric debt instruments concocted by the Wall Street bankers. Michael Lewis, a former bond salesman at Solomon Brothers, was a reluctant participant in the opaque world of high finance during his early days in Wall Street (he later quit and became a journalist and authored  many popular books such as, Liar’s Poker, Moneyball, Blindside etc.) and he was shocked to find that many Wall Street firms employed highly incompetent people who knew nothing about many of the financial products they were selling, yet received tremendous amount of money for their incompetence. In the Big Short, Lewis talks about Joe Cassano, the head of the now infamous division of AIG, the AIG FP, who was instrumental in the creation of all those high-risk Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) that were sold to every investor/trader who was short on the rotten subprime loans. This Joe Cassano was a powerful, arrogant man who had no understanding of the esoteric financial products AIG FP was insuring, according to Lewis’s book. Moreover, the book says that he was a man who refused to listen to anyone who raised concerns about these products during their daily meetings. How can a company like AIG have such an egotistical, incompetent man at the helm? The great business writer, Jim Collins writes about the primary reason why mighty companies start declining from their peak,  in his new book, How the Mighty Fall, and he says it is the hubris that decides their fate. In the case of AIG, it was the hubris and the incompetence of Joe Cassano, and the stupidity of AIG’s leadership who failed to recognize that.

Before I conclude, I would recommend you to read the story of this unknown “moral crusader” of the Wall Street who finds himself as the central figure in Lewis’ book, Big Short—Steve Eisman. Steve was disgusted with the financial legerdemain that was all pervasive in  Wall Street. He found the recklessness of these organizations and its leaders morally reprehensible. Steve was also the man who trained the now famous financial analyst, Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer.

My struggles are nothing compared to the millions who have lost homes, jobs and, more importantly, the hopes of better life. Somehow, moral hazard seem to only apply to ordinary Americans who made some bad decisions and not the big banks who threw all caution to the wind and played recklessly with other people’s money. I am troubled by this job market, which is going through a structural change. Many will never find the jobs they did all their lives. It’s been a devastating couple of years. I get a bad feeling that things will get really worse before they get better. While I keep upgrading my financial skills and try to be an active participant in the market actions, the realist in me says that dramatic upside in this economy is a mere mirage. So, I have to live by the teachings of Bhagwad Gita, “focus on the process and the result will take care of itself.” Easier said than done. I read a lot about the struggles of many successful people who defied all odds and made a mockery of conventional wisdom when it comes to building a successful life. Thinking about babies and how they learn to walk—they fall and fall and fall for a long time, but they keep getting up until they walk for good—is a great lesson. They are unencumbered by their failures; they don’t care what others think about their lack of success in the beginning; they just keep doing what they seek to achieve. It is a great motivator, that baby thing, but I am intrigued how as adults we forget that lesson we learned in our own lifetime. May be it has got to do with our own arrogance of what we know as we grow, our inflated measure of who we are and how we need to be seen in the society, how we let others define our own success, how conscious we are about what others think about our job, our assets, our family life, our material possessions…Life in the grand scheme of things should be all about where we started and how we make our journey till we bow out of this world. At the end of the day, poor or rich, we need to stick to our values defined by dharma and perform our actions that are positive in some small way to the society we live in.

Good luck and good life to all!