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Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Kyle Bass: "You Can't Do This for Very Long!"

Kyle Bass to David Faber (CNBC):
"Global debt has grown from 80 trillion dollars to 200 trillion dollars in the last ten years....a whopping 10.7% CAGR...this is not "deleveraging" as everyone seems to think the world is experiencing..."
"Global central bank balance sheet is growing by 16% per annum"
"Global population is growing by 1.6%"
"Global GDP is expected to grow by 3.4%"
Listening to Kyle Bass, who manages several billion dollars in his Hayman Capital, a very successful hedge fund, is always quite exciting and highly informative. In a world where people continue to indulge in "collective stupidity" of "emperor has new clothes", Kyle Bass is a breath of fresh air. While most money managers suffer from confirmation bias and see economic data suggesting never-ending "global growth", Kyle Bass (and there are others) is not shy of painting a bleak picture for the global economy.
Of course, Kyle Bass made money by being "negative" and fully grasping the economic realities of US housing sector prior to its spectacular collapse. He is one of the now famous "Big shorts" (John Paulson, Michael Burry and few others are equally famous for their substantial "short" subprime trades that made them billions) who successfully timed their "short" strategies against subprime-based mortgage-backed securities (MBS)to make incredible returns for their investors.
Kyle is also famous for his in-depth research on many of the debt-ridden nations around the world and was prescient in predicting "sovereign debt crisis" in the EU zone way back in 2006, much before PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain)became a household acronym for all the wrong reasons.
Right now, Kyle's big bet is against Japanese debt (JGBs - Japanese Government bonds) and the currency, JPY. Both are highly inflated given the realities of 200% debt-to-GDP and aging population of Japan. Of course, Kyle's fund is losing money, as Japan continues to defy all logic despite being so heavily indebted. Japanese bonds continue to enjoy global demand (very low yields) and Japanese Yen is still considered as a "safe haven" currency. It is quite a conundrum that the Japanes Yen has defied the logic that applies to most economies where "quantitative easing" is conducted by the central bank of that country. When more money is printed out of thin air, it usually results in currency depreciation. Not in Japan; even after a decade of easing, JPY has rallied from 144 to 78 yen per US dollar! Of course, it's all relative. The US has lost the trading edge, in the meantime.
Well, I digress. The point I was trying to make was that Kyle's bet against the Japanese debt and the currency is losing money despite the right analysis based on fundamentals. My own take from my research is that, Japan, unlike many other debt-ridden nations, has a current account surplus because of its export-economy and all that foreign money from trade is exchanged for JPY and JGB thereby keeping both very strong. Until Japan suffers in terms of its international trade due to strengthening currency, this facade of economic health will continue. Moreover, Japanese central bank (BOJ) has a strong balance sheet with more than $1.2 trillion.
Now, to end this blog (I was not planning on writing so much)I want to come back to Kyle Bass's interview I saw on CNBC today. Kyle did not say much but mentioned those four data points (see at the top), which was followed by, " you can't do this for very long." And, I think serious macro thinkers (rest of the world is busy with iPhone and social networks)have to pay attention to this:
Kyle is saying, with the current projected global growth at 3.4%, with a population growth of 1.6%, what we are experiencing in terms of global debt and deficits and central bank balance sheet expansion, there is only one possible outcome one can foresee...INFLATION or worse, in my opinion "STAGFLATION." Kyle is right about this alarming growth of global debt, which could plunge the global economy into another depression when the debt-bubble finally bursts. But before that, the monetary expansion (all this printing of fiat currencies)undertaken by major central banks (US Fed, ECB, BOJ, PBOC etc.)around the world will certainly lead to painful inflation, even hyper-inflation, as suggested by historical evidence (Weimer republic in Germany in 1930s and Zimbabwe recently).
Kyle is prepared to take advantage of this situation. I am sure he doesn't wish that the world suffers what he thinks is inevitable. Yet, all data point toward this worst case scenario. The sad thing is, while Kyle and his ilk can safeguard their assets and investments, billions of ordinary people around world the will be left holding the bag for all the incredible stupidity of all those who call themselves as our "leaders." We have seen corruption, greed, mismanagement and complete disregard for the consequences of one's actions. No dharma here. When the music finally stops, who knows what the collateral damage will look like. As many wise men, throughout the ages, have repeatedly cautioned us, "to stay detached is the only way to eternal happiness" seems to be the only solution. That's not being passive. I think, as I said somewhere in this blog, in a world dominated by those who hail naked emperor's "new clothes", is it realistic to go against the current (mixing metaphors here)? Is there a point shouting "fire" in a theater full of deaf people watching silent movie? Only when it starts burning, does the reality of fire becomes very real. I hope better senses prevail.
I think it's Darwin who once said, "it's not the strongest or the smartest that survives, but one that adapts to change." That quote may not be the most appropriate here, yet, Darwin is right: we need to recognize the change that is happening...change in terms of economic realities, caliber of leaders, insatiable desire for consumption, extreme materialism, rampant violence, ideological clashes, widening economic divide...the list can go on. The globe is catching infection due to multiple infections; and, this change for the worse is simply not sustainable. We need to adapt by changing the course. That, my friends, is possible when we go back to nature...Dharma. We need to understand our essence...human dharma.

Monday, September 17, 2012

Incredible Income Disparity in the US

This is not something new. Democrats use this as their war cry, even as their own politicians are found "playing" the stock market with "insider" information (of course, it does not apply to elected representatives of US congress!)and keep getting wealthier. Republicans, on the other hand, are known for their "trickle down" or in more sophisticated jargon, "supply side theory." They are alwys for "tax cuts." I am not sure who is right. Both sides can use the same data and spin it to make their arguments good. Washington is mired with people full of confirmation bias. Well, I guess, we all display this fallacy, to be honest. Politics apart, I just wanted to post this incredibly telling data on US income inequality and how various "income groups" have fared over 38 years. No wonder, the system is extremely lopsided! Despite this mindnumbing advantage, the affluent class continues to be aided by the monetary policies of Ben Bernanke. Fed chief may not be doing it intentionally and one might give him benefit of the doubt (he seems like a good man); however, his policies are known to pump money into Wall Street and invariably finds its way into the homes of those who are rich and well-connected. This trickle down thing seems to have a directional bias or knows when to stop trickling further. Here is the data:

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Risk Currencies: A big jump on the back of Fed's "liquidity provision"

Well, I talked about this "rally in risk currencies" in my previous post here on 11/26. I particularly warned about "behind-the-scenes machinations" that would provide a liquidity boost to the global financial system. The signs were quite conspicuous, as European financial system was seen as "freezing" because of lack of interbank lending. Something had to be done by someone and it was our own Fed, which came to the rescue.

At around 8am EST, Fed announced "currency swap" provision with EU banking system. This was obviously to stop the potential "bank run" that was threatening the global financial system. Along with the US Fed, other central banks--BOJ, SNB, ECB, PBOC--around the world acted in a coordinated fashion to provide liquidity to the ailing European banks. Today, around 5:30am, when the news about China's PBOC's decision to ease the reserve requirements for the banks floated on my screen, I realized that there is something "cooking" among the central bankers around the world.

The trigger had been pulled! Like I said in my previous post, there were many traders who were not ready for this, yet they had their fingers on "Sell US dollar" button. So, EURO, AUD, NOK, GBP...every one of these beaten down currencies rallied instantly. It was one of those "black swan" rallies that drives the price changes beyond "3-sigma" around the moving averages.

Let's look at some of the profit-making trades based on the recommendations I had made in the previous post...

Although, I was quite positive about the EUR/USD rally from $1.325, I wasn't enthusiastic about the "EUR long" trade, as I find it hard to digest euro's inherent problems. It did spike up to $1.353. My recommendations: "go long the AUD, GBP and NOK against the USD." So, if you had, say, one "standard lot" a position of 100,000 units of each of those aforementioned currencies against the USD (at 50:1 leverage, you need $6,000 to do these trades)then, following the "entry" and "exit" at the following price points would have resulted in following profits:

AUD/USD: Buy 100,000 AUD at $0.9800 and Sell at $1.02 (it rallied to $1.035), 400- pip profit translates into a USD profit of $$4,000 (1 pip = $10/100K position)

GBP/USD: Buy 100,000 GBP at $1.55 and Sell at $.15750 (rallied to $1.578), 350-pip profit translates into a USD profit of $3,500.

USD/NOK: Sell USD 100,000 (that is buying NOK) at 5.85 (it was at 5.90 in the beginning of the week and today USD fell to 5.73) and buy USD back at 5.75 for a 1000-pip profit, which translates to approximately $1,700 (ipip = $1.7/100k).

So, for a $6,000 investment, this week, on this move in risk currencies, one could have made $9,200! That is 153% profit in 3 days.

Obviously, these profits are not always easily "baggable" in times of tremendous volatility, especially, the one's we witnessed today. As the market goes in trader's favor, the first instinct is always to quickly take profits, leaving much of the rally go complete waste. This is the reason why I did not take the "peak of the rally" prices as my exit points; I was a bit conservative here.

Trades work that way. One cannot be too greedy, because these rallies do fade after the inevitable exhaustion point is reached. Big currency investors buy or sell only to a certain point, and they still maintain a good inventory of the currencies not in favor at any given moment, for example, USD at the moment. However, I still think this rally in risk assets will continue, simply because, now, the central banks around the world want to avoid another "global slow down" due to the problems in european sovereign debt market. That said, this move from the central bankers is an indication that the banking problems in the EU is quite severe. Moreover, this "liquidity" action is to help alleviate interbank lending problems and that does not necessarily address the "solvency" issues of debt-ridden EU countries. If the yields of Italian and Spanish bonds continue to rise in the coming days, this rally will be a very short-lived one.

So, be careful out there.

Saturday, November 26, 2011

FX Markets: Time to get back on "Risk" Currencies?

European situation just got worse last week. Chancellor Merkel's reluctance to embrace euro-bonds caused further flight away from risky assets into safe haven assets. USD has been the biggest beneficiary of this latest risk aversion in the markets.

Euro/dollar is hanging by the thread; it is about to break below $1.32. FX pundits see Euro capitulation and a retest of 2011 low of $1.28. Lack of consensus among EU leaders in terms of providing further liquidity to troubled nations--Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece--may expedite this precipitous fall.

While I don't want to be heroic here and put a "long" position on euro/dollar, I think, it is unlikely that euro will see further decline and may in fact, bounce back violnetly. My rationale behind that thesis:

1. There are too many "euro shorts" with a finger on the "buy" button, if "behind-the-scenes machinations" lead to a substantial liquidity provision to this rapidly worsening debt markets in Europe.

2. USD is only a safe haven currency in times of crisis, and fundamentally is not that strong.

3. There are many central banks, China including, who in the recent past made strategic decision to diversify away from USD into euro, as Fed's QE 2 flooded the banks with dollars. These central bankers will be keen on protecting their investments, as opposed to going back to the USD, which is fundamentally on a long-term decline due to worsening fiscal situation in the US.

4. At least in the near-term, the EU leaders will not allow the disintegration of the EMU and the common currency. Collapse of euro-zone could have a cataclysmic effect on global economy and financial markets. So, even though, most analysts feel that EMU will see some kind of re-structuring, there will be every effort to delay this inevitable event, and let the markets digest this eventuality in an orderly fashion.

So, I think Euro will bounce back to $1.36 in the first week of December. But, I am more interested in other currencies that are being clobbered along with the euro. I would prefer the following trades if the "bloodbath" continues next week:

Buy AUD/USD right around $0.9650 - despite China slowing down, commodities such as gold and silver will find buyers and Australia will benefit from that

GBP/USD has declined quickly to $1.54 level from a very recent high of $1.61. UK is implementing it's own version of QE, however, they are also one step ahead of the US in terms of dealing with their fiscal situation through austerities. I would buy it between $1.52 - $1.54 and ride it all the way to $1.60.

I have had reasonable success trading another "risk currency"--Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK pair). In recent days, NOK has declined by nearly 4,000 pips to 1USD = 5.93 krone. I will be perfectly fine to short the pair (forecasting a rally in NOK) around this level all the way to NOK6.00. I would do it in small increments (few short positions foe every 150pip appreciation in the USD) and put a stop-loss at 1USD = NOK6.0200.

I think the Chinese, the US Fed and Germany & France will step in to prevent a massive shock to global markets and specifically, prevent upheaval in the FX markets. It could happen in a week or two and then the "risk-on" trade will flourish until the year end.

Of course, all forecasts are mere predictions based on "knowable" variables while "black Swans" lurk in the shadow. That's something I have clearly understood ever since I humbly accepted Nassim Taleb as my Guru. Nevertheless, it is too early for the world leaders to accept defeat in the hands of the gigantic "debt beast" that is gradually swallowing profligate nations. The destruction will come in massive scale, but in the meantime, there are opportunities to execute profitable trades, as the waves of optimism and pessimism persist in the FX markets.

"Complexities of Change" A short tale

Saturday mornings are relatively laidback for me. I spend lot of time reading things that really keep me relaxed. Today, I got this email from a dear friend of mine with an attachment--"Tales for Change" by Margaret Parkin. And, as soon as I read this really short tale on "complexities of Change" (author narrates this story originally in another book called, "Tales for Coaching"), I decided to immortalize it by posting it on this blog. Here goes the tale and commentary, verbatim, by the author:

...tale of two caterpillars who, whilst sitting together on a cabbage leaf, suddenly hear a swishing noise, and look up to see a beautiful butterfly flying overhead. The first caterpillar looks at the other, shakes his head and says, 'You'll never get me up in one of those things.

Author, further comments:
This tale is a powerful tool for illustrating the complexities of change--the resistance to the idea of transition, the ability to see oneself in another dimension and the inevitability of change are all contained within the metaphor.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Occupy Wall Street: Creating Anarchy or Purposeful Protest?

I have now spent most of the last two decades of my life in the United States. And, I have seen few instances of public angst, be it against the war in Iraq, globalization, or environmentalists against the oil companies or for that matter, “tea party” against “expansionary” federal government. But never before have I seen such an outpouring of anger toward the elites of Wall Street. What is happening?

I think there is a genuine anger towards the big banks and their Washington power brokers. I don’t know whether it is all justified. However, those who take this lightly and ridicule (some mainstream media persons have sounded arrogant and elitist when addressing the concerns of these protesters) the whole movement as some passing phenomenon could be in for a surprise.

Whether or not Wall Street was singularly responsible for the current economic malaise is irrelevant now. It is a fact that banks made huge bets in the housing mortgage sector, endlessly securitizing, in search of non-existent yields (risk-adjusted return, I mean), disregarding every risk metric in the book. Of course, banks were not solely responsible for it; nonetheless, being the foundations and pillars of capitalist economic system, responsible behavior was expected of them. This is what I call the capitalist dharma. Leaders of these institutions should have displayed solid integrity and morals, devoid of rabid greed for profits (more securitization, more CDOs meant higher profits and the only way to compete was to be in the game and find every loophole in the regulatory system to increase profit). The fact that they settled for lesser standards is at the root of what ails the general economy today. When the lifeline of an economy—credit and liquidity—is choked, aggregate demand nosedives, companies’ layoff workers, and production activities dwindle and we get hit with a recession. Unfortunately, this is not one of those run-of-the-mill recessions; it’s a massive credit-related depression, the likes of which one experiences once in a long time. Who is responsible for this credit crisis?

I am sure most of these protesters blame the banks and I get a feeling that most would agree with that perception. While a huge section of the population suffer from this continued economic downturn, top bankers and top executives from other big corporations seem to be earning in millions; somehow, that dichotomy doesn’t sit well with those who have a hard time putting meal on the table for their families. It is futile to argue that these bonuses were part of the contract, or this is how the free market system operates (highest talents get highest rewards), or for that matter, this is how America got rich, and so on, do not fly in the face of suffering, inflicted on the masses since the economy started bleeding jobs in millions. And, it is also true that these executives are receiving big bonuses for the big profits they have generated and mostly these profits are an outcome of massive cost cutting and layoffs. So the saying goes, “privatize the profits, socialize the losses”, while millions lose livelihood, few earn millions because they let go millions? It simply doesn’t feel like justice.

It is one thing, if these executives earn their well-deserved salaries for their continued shepherding of their firms during these difficult times, but it is another if they are paid in millions for downsizing and therefore, better bottom line at the expense of ordinary employees; contracts or no contracts. Well, one may argue that that’s what companies do in recessions; but, is this an ordinary recession? If so, how is it that profits are so good and bonuses are so good? So, this recession induced by the “too big to fail” is only for those “too small to succeed” types? One cannot dismiss and just label this line of argument as “populist” socialist argument or some other “class warfare” argument; it simply feels like adharmic (unjust). When the rich and powerful start understanding the pain and suffering of the small guy, then we don’t have to hide behind the free market ethos to defend these excesses by the few. I am sure these top executives deserve bigger rewards for the kind of hard work they have done or the kind of responsibilities they shoulder, yet it serves the society better if they can feel the pulse of the majority and lower their expectations, be content with lower rewards and be more magnanimous. More than rights, it is about duties; doing the right thing for the good of the society.

I feel that we wouldn’t see unrests in societies like ours, if those who have plenty are little more understanding of those who find it so hard to rise above subsistence living despite their hard work. It is a known thing that rich don’t become rich purely because they are hard working and talented; Somewhere this society as a whole creates that opportunity for those few who were lucky enough to rise above the competition. We, as a society, suffer from survivorship bias, and tend to focus on the success stories too much; we then go on to create heroes out of these figures forever lauding their unique traits. What we ignore is the fact that thousands who fail despite having the same traits and qualities; why? Because of bad timing or ill luck or that proverbial “not being at the right place at the right time.”

So, those who make it big should be humble enough to recognize how fortunate they were; that awareness will make them stay more in-tune with the feelings of millions who hit the brick wall no matter what they try to do. It is certainly true that this world is lopsided when it comes to the distribution of material success and failure figures. There are few rich nations and many poor; there are few CEOs and most are ordinary employees; there are few rich and most are materially poor. It’s the 80/20 rule. And, the few who are lucky to be at the top get there because of confluence of factors and not just their talents and hard work. What they don’t realize is that no one remains at the top forever. Everything is cyclical in nature. Rich and strong nations become poor and weak and vice versa. It’s only a matter of time. Some timeframes are much longer than others, and that gives us this illusion of permanence of a state or condition. There are countless cases of demise of rich families and the wretched conditions of their offspring. This is no fiction.

Well, I digress. Coming back to the subject matter, we know that perception is reality. While most Wall Street workers are like most of us, working hard to earn a living, there is no denying that some at the top were responsible (Joe Cassano of AIG, Dick Fuld of Lehman are certainly up there in this list) in perpetuating this crisis to this extent. Washington was equally complicit in this. And, people have come to this conclusion that their lives have been destroyed by those few who pull the levers of power in Wall Street and Washington. Once that notion takes a life of its own, as it has shown in the past few days, it becomes a force of change.

This is what I think is going on. The joblessness and the lack of hope among multitudes will seek a symbol of power to rile up against. Disappointment, anger and lack of positive policies to alleviate the misery will help build this movement. Is this the sign of our times? Could this be the great “purging” moment in the history of developed economies? I hope this movement forces the leaders—both political and business—to rethink their behavior. A middle ground has to be reached where solid regulatory framework checks rampant greed while facilitating healthy competition; a fair tax system that brings higher revenues from the very rich in the land (this is not class warfare!); spending restraint on the part of government; reform of Medicare and social security program, should be at the forefront of national discussion. Once again, these politicians have to stop being ideologues and come to the middle. If they fail to do so, this protest will morph into more violent and ugly. When people start losing hope, especially in great numbers, that’s a recipe for a revolution. Capitalism doesn’t need a revolution. It will destroy it or at least, will inflict great damage to our balanced system and just institutions. Political leaders have committed great follies throughout history by their unwillingness to be flexible and listen to those who opposed their ideological positions. Many disastrous wars were fought because some rigid political leader did not have the intellectual honesty to seek the truth.

I hope our leaders learn from history and don’t dismiss this “Occupy Wall Street” as some frivolous protest with a short life span. It could end that way; on the other hand, this could turn into a real unrest, and grow into a force capable of destabilizing our capitalist system. And, that’s not just bad for this nation, but it’s bad for the entire world. Anarchy of global proportions will lead to violence and destruction. This may sound alarmist, but it is a pleading voice (pleading the political leaders and the business leaders to shove their ideologies and listen to those who have been hurt by their decisions) of a concerned citizen whose only motive is to see a stronger benevolent capitalist system and a stronger nation.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Steve Jobs, the Whole World will Miss You!

A true pillar of capitalism, a symbol of all that was good in the world of creativity.

Apple CEO, the legendary tech visionary, Steve Jobs passed away today. Despite the fact that the whole world was aware of his battle against pancreatic cancer, the news has shocked the business world. He was only 56! I don't own a single Apple product, yet I feel sad and am in a state of mourning. A true genius, Steve was a role model for all those who aspired to reach the pinnacle of technological creativity.

Here is my tribute to Steve (sent to Apple at rememberingsteve@apple.com):

There have been only few in this world who have cast such powerful spell on the entire globe by the sheer virtue of their superior knowledge about what works and what takes a life of its own...Steve Jobs, you are one of those rarest gems! I hope Apple would build a robotic "helper" for the masses and honor you by calling it "iSteve." That would be the highest tribute to your genius.


The whole wide world will miss you, Steve! May your soul rest in peace.